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Kongressvalg 2006: Status 28.11.06

Monticello Society oppsummerer her målingene, tipsene og resultatene fra valget til Representantenes Hus i 2006. I 2004 tippet vi riktig vinner i 430 av 435 distrikter.

Demokratene trenger å ta netto 15 seter for å gjenerobre makten. Ser vi kun på målingene ligger demokratene an til å ta 34 seter, men det er meget jevnt mange steder, og flere av målingene er også utdaterte.

Vi tipper at demokratene vinner netto 20 seter, men vi understreker at det knytter seg stor usikkerhet til både det totale antallet og de enkelte setene. For oss faller de 74 nedenstående inn i ni kategorier:

Ganske sikker demokratisk gevinst: 6 (AZ-8, CO-7, IN-8, IA-1, PA-7, PA-10)
Trolig demokratisk gevinst: 3 (NC-11, NY-24, OH-18)
Usikker demokratisk gevinst: 11 (CT-4, CT-5, FL-13, FL-16, IN-2, KY-3, NH-2, NY-20, OH-1,OH-15, PA-6)
Knapp republikansk seier: 18 (AZ-1, AZ-5, CT-2, FL-22, ID-1, IL-6, IN-9, KY-4, NM-1, NY 25, NY-26, NY-29, NC-8, OH-2, TX-22, WI-8, WY-1)
Trolig republikansk seier: 19 (CA-11, CO-4, IL-10, IA-2, KS-2, MN-1, MN-2, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, NH-1,  NJ-7, NY-19, OH-12, PA-4, PA-8, VA-2, WA-5, WA-8)
Ganske sikker republikansk seier: 9 (CA-4, CA-50, CO-5, IN-3, KY-2, MI-7, NY-3, TX-23, VA-10)
Knapp demokratisk seier: 2 (GA-8, GA 12)
Trolig demokratisk seier: 1 (IL-8)
Ganske sikker demokratisk seier: 6 (IN-7, IA-3, LA-3, TX-17, VT, WV1)


Valgmeny:

* Forside

* Senatet
* Senatsmålinger

* Rep.Hus forside
* Rep.Hus målinger
* Alabama-California
* Colorado-Illinois
* Indiana-Minnesota
* Mississippi-New York
* N. Carolina-S. Dakota
* Tennessee-Wyoming

* Guvernører
* Guvernørmålinger
* Folkeavstemninger
* Delstatsforsamlinger

Distrikt
(Parti) 		Demokrat Republikaner Målinger

 TIPS RES
AZ 1 (R)
 Ellen Simon
 Rick Renzi*
 38-41 (24-26.10), 32-45 (20-22.10), 50-46 (8-10.10)
 REP
 REP
AZ 5 (R)
 Harry Mitchell
 J.D. Hayworth*
 48-46 (29-31.10), 45-48 (13-15.10), 40-52 (15-17.9)
 REP
 DEM +
AZ 8 (R)
 Gabrielle Giffords
 Randy Graf
 50-35 (25-28.10), 53-41 (24-29.10), 48-38 (20-23.10), 48-36 (16-19.9)
 DEM +
 DEM +
CA 4 (R)
 Charles Brown
 John Doolittle*
 43-50 (31.10-2.11), 39-39 (24-26.10), 44-52 (8-10.10)
 REP
 		REP
CA 11 (R)
 Jerry McNerney
 Richard Pombo*
 48-46 (24-26.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
CA 50 (R)
 Francine Busby
 Brian Bilbrey*
 41-55 (1-3.11), 46-49 (13-15.10), 40-54 (10-12.9)
 REP
 		REP
CO 4 (R)
 Angie Paccione
 Marilyn Musgrave*
 43-44 (31.10-2.11), 48-45 (24-26.10), 38-48 (15-17.10), 36-46 (3-7.10)
 REP
 		REP
CO 5 (R)
 Jay Fawcett
 Douglas Lamborne
 42-51 (1-3.11), 40-47 (24-27.10), 38-51 (16-18.10), 37-37 (3-7.10)
 REP
 REP
CO 7 (R)
 Ed Perlmutter
 Rick O'Donnell
 54-38 (29-31.10), 54-40 (24-29.10), 51-46 (24-26.10), 47-47 (8-10.10)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
CT 2 (R)
 Joe Courtney
 Rob Simmons*
 48-47 (28-30.10), 42-47 (24-29.10), 51-45 (24-26.10), 44-46 (12-18.10) REP
 		DEM +
CT 4 (R)
 Dianne Farrell
 Chris Shays*
 47-43 (26-28.10), 51-44 (24-29.10), 43-52 (24-26.10), 43-43 (16-22.10)
 DEM +
 		REP
CT 5 (R)
 Chris Murphy
 Nancy Johnson*
 46-43 (27-29.10), 46-42 (24-28.10), 51-43 (24-26.10), 46-52 (8-10.10)
 DEM +
 DEM +
FL 13 (R)
 Christine Jennings
 Vern Buchanan
 49-47 (24-26.10), 47-44 (8-10.10) DEM +
 REP
FL 16 (R)
 Tim Mahoney
 Joe Negron
 48-41 (11-13.10), 50-43 (1.10)
 DEM +
 DEM +
FL 22 (R)
 Ron Klein
 Clay Shaw*
 49-40 (31.10-2.11), 50-48 (24-26.10), 43-48 (16-19.10), 44-52 (27-29.8)
 REP
 		DEM +
GA 8 (D)
 Jim Marshall*
 Mac Collins
 -
 DEM
 		DEM
GA 12 (D)
 John Barrow*
 Max Burns
 42-39 (26.10)
 DEM
 		DEM
ID 1 (R)
 Larry Grant
 Bill Sali
 38-34 (25.10-1.11), 37-39 (23-25.10), 43-49 (8-10.10)
 REP
 REP
IL 6 (R)
 Tammy Duckworth
 Peter Roskam
 54-40 (24-29.10), 48-47 (24-26.10), 42-46 (19-24.10), 39-43 (14-18.10)
 REP
 		REP
IL 8 (D)
 Melissa Bean*
 David McSweeney
 50-45 (24-26.10), 42-39 (18-24.10), 50-31 (14-18.10), 47-44 (15-16.10)
 DEM
 		DEM
IL 10 (R)
 Dan Seals
 Mark Kirk*
 48-46 (24-26.10), 44-46 (15-16.10)
 REP
 REP
IN 2 (R)
 Joe Donnelly
 Chris Chocola*
 50-47 (30-31.10), 52-39 (24-29.10), 48-45 (24-26.10), 50-45 (16-17.10)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
IN 3 (R)
 Tom Heyhurst
 Mark Souder*
 40-52 (24-26.10)
 REP
 REP
IN 7 (D)
 Julia Carson*
 Eric Dickerson
 48-43 (17-20.10), 42-45 (16-18.10)
 DEM
 DEM
IN 8 (R)
 Brad Ellsworth
 John Hostettler*
 53-43 (24-26.10), 50-43 (17-20.10), 55-32 (5-12.10), 47-32 (6-21.9)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
IN 9 (R)
 Baron Hill
 Mike Soudrel*
 44-46 (31.10-2.11), 48-46 (24-29.10), 51-43 (24-26.10), 47-43 (20-22.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
IA 1 (R)
 Bruce Braley
 Mike Whalen
 56-35 (31.10-3.11), 49-42 (24-29.10), 44-37 (10-13.9), 54-41 (27-29.8)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
IA 2 (R)
 David Loebsack
 James Leach*
 48-50 (24-26.10), 48-47 (8-10.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
IA 3 (D)
 Leonard Boswell*
 Jeff Lamberti
 53-41 (30-31.10), 52-41 (11-12.9), 54-43 (27-29.8)
 DEM
 		DEM
KS 2 (R)
 Nancy Boyda
 Jim Ruyn*
 -
 REP
 DEM +
KY 2 (R)
 Mike Weaver
 Ron Lewis*
 -
 REP
 REP
KY 3 (R)
 John Yarmuth
 Anne Northup*
 50-45 (4-5.10), 52-44 (30.10-1.11), 52-46 (24-26.10), 42-48 (23-25.10)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
KY 4 (R)
 Ken Lucas
 Geoff Davis*
 43-49 (3-5.11), 45-42 (24-29.10), 50-46 (24-26.10), 44-46 (21-23.10)
 REP
 		REP
LA 3 (D)
 Charlie Melancon*
 Craig Romero
 -
 DEM
 		DEM
MI 7 (R)
 Sharon Renier
 Tim Wahlberg*
 -
 REP
 REP
MN 1 (R)
 Tim Walz
 Gil Gutknecht*
 47-50 (24-26.10), 47-48 (8-10.10)
 REP
 DEM +
MN 2 (R)
 Colleen Rowley
 John Kline*
 36-54 (29-31.10), 42-50 (13-15.10), 35-55 (24-26.9)
 REP
 		REP
MN 6 (R)
 Patty Wetterling
 Michele Bachmann
 42-52 (24-29.10), 47-48 (24-26.10), 43-49 (22-24.10), 48-40 (6-12.10)
 REP
 		REP
NV 2 (R)
 Jill Derby
 Dean Heller
 39-47 (26-30.10), 40-48 (23-25.10), 42-54 (19-21.9), 37-45 (5-7.9)
 REP
 		REP
NV 3 (R)
 Tessa Hafen
 Jon Porter*
 39-46 (26-30.10), 44-51 (24-26.10), 37-47 (19-21.9), 43-51 (27-29.8)
 REP
 		REP
NH 1 (R)
 Carol Shea-Porter
 Jeb Bradley*
 40-49 (2-5.11), 37-51 (1-4.11), 40-48 (1-2.11), 42-47 (30.10-2.11)
 REP
 DEM +
NH 2 (R)
 Paul Hodes
 Charles Bass*
 48-39 (2-5.11), 44-39 (1-4.11), 46-47 (1-2.11), 49-36 (30.10-2.11)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
NJ 7 (R)
 Linda Stender
 Mike Ferguson*
 43-46 (24-26.10), 46-48 (8-10.10)
 REP
 REP
NM 1 (R)
 Patricia Madrid
 Heather Wilson*
 50-48 (3-5.11), 49-45 (1-2.11), 53-44 (24-29.10), 45-42 (17-19.10)
 REP
 		REP
NY 3 (R)
 Dave Mejias
 Peter King*
 44-51 (24-26.10), 46-48 (8-10.10)
 REP
 REP
NY 19 (R)
 John Hall
 Sue Kelly*
 49-47 (24-26.10), 49-40 (15-16.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
NY 20 (R)
 Kirsten Gillibrand
 John Sweeney*
 46-43 (1-2.11), 53-42 (24-26.10), 39-53 (16-17.10), 54-41 (15-16.10)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
NY 24 (R) Michael Arcuri
 Ray Meier
 53-42 (8-10.10)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
NY 25 (R)
 Dan Maffei
 James Walsh*
 53-44 (24-26.10), 51-43 (15-16.10)
 REP
 REP
NY 26 (R)
 Jack Davis
 Tom Reynolds*
 46-47 (31.10-1.11), 46-50 (1-3.11), 45-50 (23-25.10), 46-49 (16-18.10)
 REP
 		REP
NY 29 (R)
 Eric Massa
 John Kuhl*
 53-42 /24-26.10), 52-40 (15-16.10)
 REP
 		REP
NC 8 (R)
 Larry Kissel
 Robin Hayes*
 48-44 (24-26.10), 51-44 (8-10.10)
 REP
 		REP
NC 11 (R)
 Heath Shuler
 Charles Taylor*
 48-43 (24-29.10), 53-44 (24-26.10), 51-43 (8-10.10), 50-47 (27-29.8)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
OH 1 (R)
 John Cranley
 Steve Chabot*
 48-46 (24-26.10)
 DEM +
 		REP
OH 2 (R)
 Victoria Wulsin
 Jean Schmidt*
 48-45 (29-31.10), 46-51 (24-26.10), 40-48 (14-16.10), 48-45 (8-10.10)
 REP
 		REP
OH 12 (R)
 Bob Shamansky
 Pat Tiberi*
 46-51 (24-26.10)
 REP
 REP
OH 15 (R)
 Mary Jo Kilroy
 Deborah Pryce*
 53-41 (8-10.10)
 DEM +
 		REP
OH 18 (R)
 Zack Space
 Joy Padgett
 53-33 (24-29.10), 51-42 (8-10.10)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
PA 4  (R)
 Jason Altmire
 Melissa Hart*
 47-51 (24-26.10), 42-46 (21-22.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
PA 6 (R)
 Lois Murphy
 Jim Gerlach*
 49-44 (24-29.10), 51-46 (24-26.10), 52-46 (8-10.10), 38-45 (20-25.9)
 DEM +
 		REP
PA 7 (R)
 Joe Sestak
 Kurt Weldon*
 52-44 (8-10.10), 45-44 (22-27.9)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
PA 8 (R)
 Patrick Murphy
 Mike Fitzpatrick*
 42-47 (25-27.10), 50-47 (24-26.10), 39-48 (19-23.10), 45-53 (27-29.8)
 REP
 		DEM +
PA 10 (R)
 Chris Carney
 Donald Sherwood*
 47-38 (22-26.10), 50-38 (20-23.10), 47-38 (24-28.9) og 50-43 (27-29.8)
 DEM +
 		DEM +
TX 17 (D)
 Chet Edwards*
 Van Taylor
 55-38 (8-10.10)
 DEM
 		DEM
TX 22 (R)
 Nick Lampson
 Shelley Sekula-Gibbs
 36-28 (22-26.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
TX 23 (R)
 (flere kandidater)
 Henry Bonilla*
 -
 REP
 		DEM +
VT (uavh.)
 Peter Welch
 Martha Rainville
 51-41 (23-24.10), 45-39 (18-19.9), 48-45 (13-14.9)
 DEM
 		DEM
VA 2 (R)
 Phil Kellam
 Thelma Drake*
 43-51 (24-29.10), 50-45 (24-26.10), 46-48 (8-10.10), 51-43 (27-29.8)
 REP
 		REP
VA 10 (R)
 Judy Feder
 Frank Wolf*
 42-47 (8-10.10)
 REP
 REP
WA 5 (R)
 Peter Goldmark
 Cathy McMorris*
 46-51 (24-26.10),
REP
 REP
WA 8 (R)
 Darcy Burner
 David Reichert*
 49-49 (3-5.11), 45-51 (28-30.10), 49-47 (24-26.10), 45-48 (8-10.10)
 REP
 		REP
WV 1 (D)
 Alan Mollohan*
 Chris Wakim
 52-42 (27-29.8)
 DEM
 		DEM
WI 8 (R)
 Steve Kagen
 John Gard
 51-45 (24-26.10), 43-43 (17-25.10), 48-46 (-10.10)
 REP
 		DEM +
WY 1 (R)
 Gary Trauner
 Barbara Cubin*
 40-44 (18-25.10), 37-44 (9-12.10)
 REP
 		REP
Status 2006
 203
 232

Sikre distrikter
 194
 167
Usikre distrikter
 9
 65
VÅRT TIPS
 +20 = 223
 -20 = 212
Valgresultat
 +30 = 233
 -30 =202